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The LENS Index added its ninth and tenth positions this week. Neither is a semiconductor. Neither tracks the Nasdaq. And both were identified weeks before today through our systematic screener process.
One name came from a Q2 earnings report that confirmed exactly what our thesis predicted. The other has been on our Watch List since July, sitting in the screener results every single week, waiting for this article to serve as the entry gate.
Here is where the portfolio stands before we get to the names.
| Metric | Value | Notes | Last Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active Positions | 9 / 30 | Two historical hard-stop exits; nine active positions remain | 10-Nov-26 |
| Cash Deployed | 41% | Risk-adjusted exposure following one 3% allocation exit | 10-Nov-26 |
| Cash Reserve | 59% | Minimum 15% cash discipline maintained | 10-Nov-26 |
| Performance Since Launch | -3.65% | Benchmark: +1.22% | Alpha: -4.87% | 10-Nov-26 |
| Alpha Generated | -4.87% | Cumulative percentage-point difference vs benchmark level | 10-Nov-26 |
| LENS All-Time High | 107.73 (07-Oct-26) | Current 96.35; 11.38 points below record | 10-Nov-26 |
| Portfolio Beta | 0.78 | vs benchmark | 118 daily-return observations | 10-Nov-26 |
| Max Drawdown | -12.1% | Peak 107.73 (07-Oct-26) to trough (05-Nov-26) | 10-Nov-26 |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.63 | Annualized; 3.5% risk-free assumption | 10-Nov-26 |
| Stop Loss Check | No new stops hit | Closest buffer 8.4%; nine active positions. | 10-Nov-26 |
| Inception | May 22, 2026 | LENS Index launched | Fixed |
| Benchmark | S&P 500 Total Return | Outperform on risk-adjusted basis | Fixed |
| Strategy | Narrative Disruption | Long-only, large-cap, max 30 positions | Fixed |
| Direction | Long Only | Subscribe to access all positions | Fixed |
Both positions are fully paywalled below. We cover the rationale behind each one, the entry parameters, and what we are watching for next.
Position 1: The Exchange Nobody Thought Would Survive Crypto
CME Group Inc (NASDAQ:CME) entered the LENS Index today at $249.24 as a CORE 4% position. The thesis has been live on our Watch List since June 29.
The narrative holding the stock down was this: Kalshi, the prediction market platform, received regulatory approval to offer crypto perpetual futures and interest rate derivatives. The conventional wisdom was that retail-accessible contracts would bleed volume away from CME’s institutional base and permanently compress the multiple.
We disagreed from the start. And Q2 2026 just proved it.
CME’s average daily volume in Q2 came in at record levels, beating consensus estimates by a meaningful margin. Treasury futures, Eurodollar contracts, and interest rate swaps did not lose a single institutional client to Kalshi. The reason is structural. A pension fund managing duration risk against a liability book does not need a regulated contract. It needs a cleared, margined, exchange-traded product with counterparty guarantee and CFTC oversight. Kalshi does not offer that. It never will. These are not the same customer.
The NFP miss in early July, the rate volatility that followed, and the ongoing uncertainty around the Warsh Fed path all mean one thing for CME: more hedging activity, not less. Every week of elevated rate uncertainty is a week of elevated CME volume.
The original entry trigger was a close below $230. Q2 earnings pushed the stock through $230 and above $249 in the same session. We entered above our trigger because the earnings report itself was the confirmation event. Entering at $249.24 rather than $221 means slightly less of the narrative gap remains to close. The thesis is intact. The position is sized accordingly.
| Ticker | Company | Sector | Date Added | Why Watching | Trigger To Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | Reddit Inc | Communication Services | 01-Sep-26 | Estimate Revision + Narrative Correction double-hit. Q2 revenue +61% YoY (8th straight qtr >60%), EPS beat ~27%, opcash >$1B LTM, capex near-zero. Stock fell 20%+ on 'choppy search referrals' despite raised guidance. | Low-$140s price threshold was already crossed by the 26-Oct-26 close ($138.45); 27-Oct $136.46 and 06-Nov $95.10. Trigger remains historical; post-earnings thesis review required. | 10-Nov-26 close: $98.66; prior trigger remains under review. |
| EXPE | Expedia Group Inc | Consumer Cyclical | 14-Jul-26 | Estimate Revision screener. OTA vs AI narrative gap. | Article + sector check. SPEC 1-2%. |
| ANET | Arista Networks | Technology | 04-Jun-26 | 80%+ share AI Ethernet. Joined index rebalancing Sep21. | Close below $160 TRIGGERED 05-Nov-26 ($159.16); recovered to $170.80 on 06-Nov. Reassess for fresh qualifying close. | 10-Nov-26 close: $185.04; prior trigger remains under review. |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corp | Technology | 23-Jun-26 | CUDA moat structural. | Close <=$183 TRIGGERED 05-Nov-26 ($181.60); 06-Nov close $186.64. Do not automatically add. | 10-Nov-26 close: $168.89; prior trigger remains under review. |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings | Technology | 09-Jun-26 | Optical AI networking. | Close <=$737 TRIGGERED 02-Nov-26 ($684.40); 06-Nov $538.59. Material selloff; fresh thesis validation required. | 10-Nov-26 close: $585.63; prior trigger remains under review. |
| SNOW | Snowflake | Technology | 29-May-26 | NRR 126%. | $190–205 pullback NOT triggered through 06-Nov (last $275.88). | 10-Nov-26 close: $295.88; pullback trigger not reached. |
| HSY | Hershey Company | Consumer Defensive | 29-Jun-26 | Cocoa + GLP-1 fear overstated. Defensive. | $165–170 pullback TRIGGERED 27-Oct-26 ($164.51; slightly below stated band), 30-Oct ($165.61), 03-Nov ($167.54). 06-Nov $178.08. Revalidate. | 10-Nov-26 close: $173.98; prior trigger remains under review. |
| LRCX (PASS) | Lam Research Corp | Technology | 23-Sep-26 evaluated, declined | Genuine AI capex tie-in but crowded, fully-recognized story. Consensus already Strong Buy, trades 47-60x earnings. | Only reconsider on a genuine dislocation, same bar as VRT. |
| LLY (PASS) | Eli Lilly and Co | Healthcare | 23-Sep-26 evaluated, declined | No coherent AI narrative. Direct conflict with PODD thesis, which argues GLP-1 fear is overstated. | Not a fit for the narrative-gap framework regardless of price. |
| P / "Everpoint" (UNVERIFIED) | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | 23-Sep-26 flagged | Could not verify this company exists as described. Not added pending verification. | Verify ticker/company directly in the screener tool. |
Entry: $249.24 | 12M Target: $300 | Hard Stop: $200 | Tier: CORE 4%
Thesis break: sustained Q3 or Q4 ADV decline that shows institutional hedgers actually moved volume away from CME. That has not happened. One quarter of record results says the opposite is true.
Position 2: The Lender To Every AI Data Center Being Built
Ares Management Corp (NYSE:ARES) entered the LENS Index today at $119.57 as a SPEC 3% position.
This name has appeared in two of our four screeners simultaneously. A double hit that happens rarely in our process. It passed both the Blind Spot Recovery screener and the Narrative Correction screener in the same session on July 13. Every week since, it has remained in both.
Here is the thesis. Every data center that gets built requires debt financing. Not equity. Debt. The capital structures behind the hyperscaler buildout: the sale-leaseback deals, the construction loans, the infrastructure credit facilities. All of these are funded through private credit markets. Ares Management is the world’s largest alternative asset manager with a specific focus on private credit, with over $335 billion in AUM and a direct credit book that is growing at double-digit rates.
The market prices Ares as a generic alternative asset manager exposed to credit cycle risk. The counter-narrative is that AI infrastructure is creating a demand for private credit that is structurally distinct from the credit cycle. Hyperscaler capex is not discretionary spend responding to interest rates. It is a strategic arms race. Amazon, Microsoft, and Google have all guided for sustained multi-year capex expansion regardless of rate environment. That capex needs financing. Ares is one of the few institutions with the scale, the deal flow relationships, and the credit underwriting expertise to absorb large infrastructure transactions at the pace the market now requires.
The stock moved from approximately $109 when we first identified it to $119.57 at today’s entry, a 10% appreciation before we even got in. That is the cost of a careful process. We still enter because the gap between current pricing and intrinsic value remains wide, and the catalyst to close it is secular rather than episodic.
| # | Ticker | Company | Tier | Status | Alloc % | Entry Date | Entry $ | Current $ | Return % | 12M Target | Hard Stop $ | Thesis Break Condition | Next Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DELL | Dell Technologies | CORE | HOLD | 8% | 22-May-26 | $291.00 | $334.38 | +14.9% | $540.00 | $218 | Q3 AI server rev below $14B OR FY2027 guide cut | 10-Nov-26: -3.44% day; +14.9% vs entry; stop buffer 34.8%. |
| 2 | AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | CORE | BUY | 7% | 05-Jun-26 | $385.73 | $331.98 | -13.9% | $575.00 | $289 | Q3 AI bookings below $20B OR hyperscaler reduces XPU commitment | 10-Nov-26: +3.91% day; -13.9% vs entry; stop buffer 12.9%. |
| 3 | GEV | GE Vernova Inc. | CORE | BUY | 4% | 14-Jul-26 | $1,042.60 | $797.04 | -23.6% | $1,400.00 | $730 | Multi-quarter decline in data center/AI power orders OR hyperscaler capex reversal | 10-Nov-26: -3.89% day; -23.6% vs entry; stop buffer 8.4%. |
| 4 | CME | CME Group | CORE | BUY | 4% | 22-Jul-26 | $249.24 | $309.00 | +24.0% | $300.00 | $200 | Sustained ADV decline OR Kalshi displaces institutional rate-hedging | 10-Nov-26: +1.47% day; +24.0% vs entry; stop buffer 35.3%. |
| 5 | MU | Micron Technology | BASE | BUY | 5% | 05-Jun-26 | $863.57 | $725.11 | -16.0% | $1,500.00 | $605 | HBM pricing collapse OR Samsung closes HBM quality gap | 10-Nov-26: -1.10% day; -16.0% vs entry; stop buffer 16.6%. |
| 6 | NOW | ServiceNow Inc. | BASE | BUY | 4% | 05-Jun-26 | $113.39 | $99.61 | -12.2% | $170.00 | $79 | Q2 net new ARR fails to accelerate | 10-Nov-26: -3.07% day; -12.2% vs entry; stop buffer 20.7%. |
| 7 | GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | BASE | BUY | 4% | 05-Jun-26 | $368.00 | $287.38 | -21.9% | $470.00 | $258 | Cloud backlog conversion below 40% | 10-Nov-26: -0.27% day; -21.9% vs entry; stop buffer 10.2%. |
| 8 | ARES | Ares Management | SPEC | BUY | 3% | 22-Jul-26 | $119.57 | $139.41 | +16.6% | $160.00 | $92 | AUM growth reversal OR private credit market dislocation | 10-Nov-26: -0.12% day; +16.6% vs entry; stop buffer 34.0%. |
| 9 | PODD | Insulet Corp | SPEC | BUY | 2% | 29-Jun-26 | $157.74 | $148.06 | -6.1% | $200.00 | $93 | Revenue growth falls below 10% OR Type 1 patient churn from GLP-1 | 10-Nov-26: -1.17% day; -6.1% vs entry; stop buffer 37.2%. |
| — | CASH | Undeployed Capital | — | — | 59% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Entry: $119.57 | 12M Target: $160 | Hard Stop: $92 | Tier: SPEC 3%
Thesis break: sustained AUM decline from redemptions or a multi-quarter freeze in private credit deal flow that shows infrastructure financing moving to public markets. Neither is happening. Both screeners keep catching this name for a reason.
The LENS Index now holds ten positions, 44% of capital deployed, 56% in reserve. The next catalyst event in the portfolio is ServiceNow’s Q2 earnings on July 29, where net new ARR acceleration is the thesis confirmation we are watching for.
