
Beating the S&P 500 in returns is one thing. Beating it with significantly lower risk is another. LENS is built to do both.
LENS is the Baptista Research LENS Index — a Large-Cap Equity Narrative Strategy — a concentrated, conviction-weighted basket of large-cap companies selected on a single criterion: the dominant market narrative is provably wrong, and a specific catalyst will correct it.
Every position is backed by a Baptista Research article published before the trade opens. Every position enters with a 12-month price target, a named thesis break condition, and a hard stop loss that closes the position at a defined level regardless of whether the thesis has technically broken. Every exit — win, loss, or draw — stays on this page permanently. The methodology is public. The track record is unedited.
The live statistics above show the current state of LENS at all times: positions open, capital deployed, performance vs the S&P 500 Total Return, alpha generated, portfolio beta and maximum drawdown since inception. Those numbers update automatically. The analysis behind them never changes retroactively.
Summary Statistics
| Metric | Value | Notes | Last Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active Positions | 11 / 30 | No stop losses hit — all positions held | 06-Oct-26 |
| Cash Deployed | 48% | 52% reserve maintained | 06-Oct-26 |
| Cash Reserve | 52% | Minimum 15% policy maintained | 06-Oct-26 |
| Performance Since Launch | +7.55% | S&P: +5.23% | Alpha: +2.32% | 06-Oct-26 |
| Alpha Generated | +2.32% | Widened as the portfolio outpaced a rising market | 06-Oct-26 |
| LENS All-Time High | 107.55 (06-Oct-26) | New record today — 0.13 above the prior high of 107.42 (22-Sep-26) | 06-Oct-26 |
| Portfolio Beta | 0.75 | vs S&P 500 | 77 observations | 06-Oct-26 |
| Max Drawdown | -3.7% | Jun18 peak → Jul16 trough 101.47. Current level remains well above trough. | 06-Oct-26 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.41 | Annualized, rf=3.5% | 06-Oct-26 |
| Stop Loss Check | Zero positions hit | One position's stop buffer widened to 6.0% after touching 3.2% on Oct 2, still the tightest in the book | 06-Oct-26 |
| Inception | May 22, 2026 | LENS Index launched | Fixed |
| Benchmark | S&P 500 Total Return | Outperform on risk-adjusted basis | Fixed |
| Strategy | Narrative Disruption | Long-only, large-cap, max 30 positions | Fixed |
| Direction | Long Only | Subscribe to access all positions | Fixed |
LENS does not just aim to beat the S&P 500. It aims to beat it with less risk.
Most research products ignore risk entirely. They show returns and leave you to figure out the drawdown profile yourself. LENS is built differently. The portfolio carries a fraction of the market’s systematic risk because of three structural decisions made before any position opens:
1. Minimum 15% cash reserve, always. High cash is not failure. It is the portfolio’s first line of defence against drawdowns. LENS never deploys below 85% invested, which means a 20% market crash produces a maximum 17% portfolio decline at full deployment — and far less at current deployment levels.
2. Hard stop loss on every position. Every constituent enters with a defined hard stop loss: Core positions at −25% from entry, Base at −30%, Speculative at −35%. When that level is breached, the position is closed — regardless of thesis status. No black swan event, credit shock or liquidity crisis can hold a position open past its stop.
3. Named thesis break conditions, not open-ended narratives. Most products tell you they’ll “reassess” when conditions change. LENS defines the precise event that invalidates each position at entry. When that event occurs, the exit is automatic. No holding on, no moving of goalposts, no “the thesis is still broadly intact.”
At current deployment (31% invested), the LENS portfolio carries an estimated beta of approximately 0.41 vs the S&P 500 — meaning the portfolio takes on roughly 59% less systematic risk than the index while generating positive alpha. That is the risk-reward profile LENS is built to deliver consistently over time.
3 things no other index/ model portfolio product does:
1. The thesis is published before the position opens. Always.
Not after. Not alongside. Before. The article is dated. The entry is timestamped. You can verify every LENS call was made before the stock moved. There is no mechanism for retroactive credit.
2. Every position has a named thesis break condition AND a hard stop loss defined at entry.
Two independent exit triggers protect every position. The thesis break condition exits when the analytical case collapses. The hard stop loss exits if price declines beyond a defined threshold — even if the thesis appears intact. Most newsletters tell you their thesis evolved. LENS removes that discretion entirely.
3. The track record is unedited, permanent and lives on this page forever.
Every exit — win, loss, or draw — stays in the LENS Track Record with the full return, the S&P 500 return over the identical period, the alpha generated, and the exact reason for exit. Nothing gets quietly deleted. The inception date is fixed. The record runs from there.
How a position enters LENS:
- A Baptista Research article documents the narrative gap and the specific catalyst — published before the position opens
- The position enters with entry price, conviction tier, 12-month target, hard stop loss level, and a named thesis break condition
- The article, entry date, target, stop loss and thesis break condition are immediately visible to all subscribers on entry
- On exit, the full return, S&P 500 comparison, alpha and exit reason are added permanently to the LENS Track Record
The LENS conviction framework (max 30 positions, min 15% cash):
- Core (5–8% allocation): Highest conviction. Narrative gap is large, catalyst is identifiable, hard stop at −25% from entry. Typical horizon: 6–18 months.
- Base (3–5% allocation): Strong conviction with wider catalyst timeline. Hard stop at −30% from entry. Typical horizon: 9–24 months.
- Speculative (1–3% allocation): Early-stage narrative gap requiring additional confirmation. Hard stop at −35% from entry. Conviction increases with evidence; size follows.
LENS is built for one type of reader:
Someone who believes that reading faster, thinking harder and acting on real information generates alpha — and wants evidence that someone else does the same work. Portfolio managers who want a second opinion before a large-cap position. Analysts who need the narrative gap identified before the catalyst. Family offices who want documented exit conditions, hard stop losses and defined risk parameters on every position. Anyone who has ever held a losing position six months longer than they should because the thesis “hadn’t technically broken” — LENS removes that discretion at entry.
$10/month. $100/year. No exceptions. No refunds on missed calls.
A Bloomberg terminal costs $27,000 per year. Professional research desks charge $25,000–$250,000 annually for large-cap coverage with nowhere near this level of documented accountability. LENS charges $100 per year for the same asset class, with published methodology, permanent track record, hard stop losses, and thesis break conditions on every open position.
New positions open when a narrative gap is identified and the article is published. Positions do not wait for subscribers. The Watch List shows what is under active coverage but has not yet triggered an entry. Subscribe now to see the current positions, their stop levels, their thesis break conditions, and what is next.
The live statistics at the top of this page show you what LENS has done. The tables below show you everything open right now. All of it is behind the paywall. All of it updates daily. Subscribe once and it is yours.
Disclaimer: Returns shown are time-weighted index returns (TWR) from inception date, consistent with industry-standard index calculation methodology used by MSCI, S&P and FTSE. Individual subscriber returns will differ based on subscription date and the prices at which personal investment decisions are made. LENS is a hypothetical index for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Baptista Research is not a registered investment adviser. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The current LENS positions, performance vs S&P 500 Total Return, watch list and permanent track record are in the tables below:
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Active Portfolio
| # | Ticker | Company | Tier | Status | Alloc % | Entry Date | Entry $ | Current $ | Return % | 12M Target | Hard Stop $ | Thesis Break Condition | Next Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DELL | Dell Technologies | CORE | HOLD | 8% | 22-May-26 | $291.00 | $574.00 | +97.3% | $540.00 | $218 | Q3 AI server rev below $14B OR FY2027 guide cut | +3.93% today. +97.3% entry, nearly double the entry price and well past target. |
| 2 | AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | CORE | BUY | 7% | 05-Jun-26 | $385.73 | $375.81 | -2.6% | $575.00 | $289 | Q3 AI bookings below $20B OR hyperscaler reduces XPU commitment | +3.67% today. -2.6% entry, narrowest gap since the position was opened. |
| 3 | GEV | GE Vernova Inc. | CORE | BUY | 4% | 14-Jul-26 | $1,042.60 | $1,029.21 | -1.3% | $1,400.00 | $730 | Multi-quarter decline in data center/AI power orders OR hyperscaler capex reversal | +3.96% today, best CORE move. -1.3% entry, closest to breakeven since July. |
| 4 | CME | CME Group | CORE | BUY | 4% | 22-Jul-26 | $249.24 | $270.18 | +8.4% | $300.00 | $200 | Sustained ADV decline OR Kalshi displaces institutional rate-hedging | +0.06% today, flat. +8.4% entry. |
| 5 | MU | Micron Technology | BASE | BUY | 5% | 05-Jun-26 | $863.57 | $1,045.56 | +21.1% | $1,500.00 | $605 | HBM pricing collapse OR Samsung closes HBM quality gap | -1.73% today, second straight decline. +21.1% entry. |
| 6 | NOW | ServiceNow Inc. | BASE | BUY | 4% | 05-Jun-26 | $113.39 | $137.97 | +21.7% | $170.00 | $79 | Q2 net new ARR fails to accelerate | +1.39% today. +21.7% entry. |
| 7 | GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | BASE | BUY | 4% | 05-Jun-26 | $368.00 | $347.68 | -5.5% | $470.00 | $258 | Cloud backlog conversion below 40% | +0.35% today. -5.5% entry. |
| 8 | FSLR | First Solar Inc | BASE | BUY | 4% | 11-Aug-26 | $240.91 | $179.80 | -25.4% | $310.00 | $169 | ASPs below $0.30/watt 2 consecutive quarters OR backlog below 35GW w/ weakening domestic demand | ⚠ +2.07% today, second straight bounce. -25.4% entry. Stop $169 NOT hit; buffer widened to 6.0% from 4.1% (low was 3.2% on Oct2). Still the closest position to its stop. |
| 9 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | SPEC | BUY | 3% | 05-Jun-26 | $238.49 | $287.01 | +20.3% | $400.00 | $155 | Scale-up optics below $200M OR FY2028 guide cut | +5.81% today, best move in the portfolio. +20.3% entry, new portfolio high for the position. |
| 10 | ARES | Ares Management | SPEC | BUY | 3% | 22-Jul-26 | $119.57 | $117.74 | -1.5% | $160.00 | $92 | AUM growth reversal OR private credit market dislocation | +0.52% today. -1.5% entry. |
| 11 | PODD | Insulet Corp | SPEC | BUY | 2% | 29-Jun-26 | $157.74 | $134.73 | -14.6% | $200.00 | $93 | Revenue growth falls below 10% OR Type 1 patient churn from GLP-1 | -0.66% today. -14.6% entry. Thesis intact. |
| — | CASH | Undeployed Capital | — | — | 52% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Performance
| Period | LENS | S&P 500 TR | Alpha Generated | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since Inception (22-May-26) | +7.55% | +5.23% | +2.32% | 11 positions | Beta=0.75 | Sharpe=1.41 | MaxDD=-3.7% |
| Oct06 (Tuesday) | +1.00% | +0.57% | +0.43% vs S&P | A strong session: the portfolio outpaced a rising market and closed at a new all-time high. The position closest to its hard stop bounced for a second straight session, widening its buffer to 6.0% from 4.1%, though it remains the tightest in the book. No stop losses were triggered. |
| LENS All-Time High | 107.55 (06-Oct-26) | Current 107.55 | New record | Surpassed the prior high of 107.42 set on Sep22. |
| Stop Loss Discipline | 0 positions triggered | 11 / 11 positions held | Zero exits since inception | Every position remains clear of its hard stop, though one buffer is still thin at roughly 6%. |
| Year to Date 2026 | +7.55% | +5.23% | +2.32% | LENS launched May 22, 2026 |
Watch List
| Ticker | Company | Sector | Date Added | Why Watching | Trigger To Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RDDT | Reddit Inc | Communication Services | 01-Sep-26 | Estimate Revision + Narrative Correction double-hit. Q2 revenue +61% YoY (8th straight qtr >60%), EPS beat ~27%, opcash >$1B LTM, capex near-zero. Stock fell 20%+ on 'choppy search referrals' despite raised guidance. | Still tracking above the low-$140s trigger as of last check — NOT YET TRIGGERED. Verify current price given this week's market volatility. Oct29 Q3 earnings confirmation remains the primary trigger. SPEC 2%. |
| EXPE | Expedia Group Inc | Consumer Cyclical | 14-Jul-26 | Estimate Revision screener. OTA vs AI narrative gap. | Article + sector check. SPEC 1-2%. |
| ANET | Arista Networks | Technology | 04-Jun-26 | 80%+ share AI Ethernet. Joined index rebalancing Sep21. | Sustained close below $160. SPEC 1-2%. |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corp | Technology | 23-Jun-26 | CUDA moat structural. | Close at or below $183 → SPEC 1-2%. |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings | Technology | 09-Jun-26 | Optical AI networking. | Close at or below $737 → SPEC 1-2%. |
| SNOW | Snowflake | Technology | 29-May-26 | NRR 126%. | 15-20% pullback → $190-205. SPEC 1-2%. |
| HSY | Hershey Company | Consumer Defensive | 29-Jun-26 | Cocoa + GLP-1 fear overstated. Defensive. | Pullback to $165-170. Target $210-220. |
| LRCX (PASS) | Lam Research Corp | Technology | 23-Sep-26 evaluated, declined | Genuine AI capex tie-in but crowded, fully-recognized story. Consensus already Strong Buy, trades 47-60x earnings. | Only reconsider on a genuine dislocation, same bar as VRT. |
| LLY (PASS) | Eli Lilly and Co | Healthcare | 23-Sep-26 evaluated, declined | No coherent AI narrative. Direct conflict with PODD thesis, which argues GLP-1 fear is overstated. | Not a fit for the narrative-gap framework regardless of price. |
| P / "Everpoint" (UNVERIFIED) | Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | 23-Sep-26 flagged | Could not verify this company exists as described. Not added pending verification. | Verify ticker/company directly in the screener tool. |
Track Record
| Ticker | Company | Entry $ | Exit $ | Return % | S&P 500 % (Same Period) | Alpha % | Win/Loss | Exit Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — | No closed positions — LENS launched May 22, 2026. | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |

