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NRG Energy’s $3.2 Billion AI Power Bet — Can It Unlock $500 Million Of EBITDA?

NRG Energy, Inc. reported solid second quarter results with adjusted EBITDA rising 34% year-over-year to $1.2 billion, driven primarily by contributions from its recent portfolio acquisition from LS Power, higher PJM capacity values, and growth in its Smart Home segment. Adjusted net income and EPS were modestly lower compared to the prior year due to acquisition-related interest and depreciation expenses, reflecting expected near-term impacts as the company continues its deleveraging plan. Free cash flow before growth improved by $111 million year-over-year to $1.025 billion. The company reaffirmed its 2026 financial guidance amid ongoing sector and market uncertainties. Segment performance was mixed, with Texas adjusted EBITDA declining by $131 million due to lower load and power prices, where prices averaged $33 per megawatt hour in the quarter – significantly below prior planning assumptions.