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Target’s Activist Showdown: Will It Spark a Stock Revival?

Target had a bruising 2025. Sales slid for the second straight year, the stock dropped 28%, and the once-loved big-box chain became a cautionary tale of retail missteps—from inventory flubs to uninspiring stores. But heading into 2026, a spark of hope has emerged. Activist hedge fund Toms Capital Investment Management has reportedly taken a significant stake in Target, potentially setting the stage for a shakeup. While the firm hasn’t made its intentions public, analysts say the mere presence of an activist can ignite what’s known as a “hope trade”—when beaten-down stocks bounce on the prospect of change. The backdrop: Target has already announced $5 billion in 2026 investments, a major corporate restructure, and a new CEO in Michael Fiddelke. All signs point to a battle—or partnership—between internal change and external pressure.