Okay, let’s talk about SpaceX for a second, because if you’ve been anywhere near financial Twitter (or X, whatever we’re calling it now) this week, you already know something weird is happening. A launch attempt got aborted right on the pad. The stock is already sitting below where it IPO’d. And somehow, at the exact same time, Wall Street can’t stop asking whether Elon Musk is about to merge his rocket company with his car company into one giant, multi trillion dollar mega corporation. Individually, any one of these stories would be a solid headline day. All three happening at once? That’s the kind of setup that makes even boring, spreadsheet loving analysts sit up straight. That collision of catalysts has made the SpaceX stock outlook one of Wall Street’s most closely watched stories.
So let’s break down exactly what’s going on, why it matters, and why the next month might be one of the most important stretches in SpaceX’s short life as a public company.
First, About That Rocket
On Thursday, July 16, SpaceX tried to launch its 13th Starship test flight, its first major Starship attempt since going public back in June in the largest IPO in history. Everything looked great heading into it. Good weather, clean countdown, no drama. Then, with about three seconds left on the clock, the engines started firing… and abruptly shut down. Four of them apparently didn’t ignite properly, and the automated safety system did exactly what it was designed to do: it caught the problem and aborted the launch before liftoff. To be clear, there was no explosion and no indication one was imminent. The rocket stayed put on the pad while the team drained the fuel.
Elon Musk hopped on X pretty quickly to explain what happened, saying some engines failed to start and triggered the abort, and that two Raptor engines would need to be swapped out before they try again. He’s targeting another attempt sometime early next week.
Here’s the thing though, this wasn’t just any test flight. This was supposed to be the mission that showed off the new V3 Starship carrying actual production Starlink satellites, the ones central to SpaceX’s next generation internet business. And because it’s the first real Starship attempt since the IPO, this launch has basically become a referendum: can SpaceX’s engineering keep pace with its enormous new valuation? The market didn’t wait around to find out, shares dropped roughly 3% in after hours trading following the abort. That reaction immediately weakened the near term SpaceX stock outlook.
Worth noting: this isn’t SpaceX’s first rodeo with abort sequences, and the automatic safety systems did exactly what they’re supposed to do. Nobody got hurt, nothing exploded. But symbolically, in the middle of a shaky stock stretch, “rocket doesn’t take off” is not the headline anyone wanted.
Then There’s The Stock Price Problem Shaping The SpaceX Stock Outlook
Here’s where it gets a little uncomfortable if you bought SpaceX stock, ticker SPCX, right after its blockbuster June 12 debut. The company priced its IPO at $135 a share, selling a base offering of 555.6 million shares, roughly $75 billion right there, with the total climbing to around $86 billion once you include the full 15% over allotment option. Either way, we’re talking one of the biggest capital raises in Wall Street history, and the stock briefly touched a valuation flirting with Amazon and Microsoft territory.
Since then? The stock has slid. It’s now trading below that original $135 IPO price and sits roughly 30% off its mid June peak. For a company that just pulled off the biggest IPO ever, that’s a pretty rough month.
Why the slide? Some of it’s just normal post IPO turbulence, hot stocks often cool off once the initial euphoria fades. But some of it is almost certainly nerves about what’s coming next. That combination is now central to the SpaceX stock outlook.
The Insider Selling Countdown Nobody’s Talking About Enough
This is the part that deserves way more attention than it’s getting. SpaceX structured its IPO lockup in an unusual, staggered way. Instead of the typical single 180 day lockup where all insider shares get freed at once, SpaceX built in multiple release windows tied to specific triggers.
The first big one: 911.5 million shares become eligible for sale two trading days after SpaceX reports its second quarter earnings, which is expected sometime in early August. That’s a lot of potential supply, those shares were worth roughly $123 billion at the price cited in recent reporting, more than the entire current public float of the stock. A second, separate tranche of 455.8 million shares could also become eligible, but only if SpaceX stock trades above $175.50 for five of ten trading sessions, a bar it isn’t currently clearing. Smaller tranches keep unlocking through August, September, and October, with even bigger releases tied to Q3 earnings and, eventually, the full 180 day mark in December.
To be clear: “eligible for sale” doesn’t mean insiders will actually sell, plenty of early employees and investors may choose to hold. But it does mean a real unlock overhang is arriving right around early August, right as the stock is already struggling. Elon Musk’s own shares stay locked up separately until 2027, so this isn’t about him personally cashing out. It’s about everyone else who got in early. The timing makes the unlock overhang a defining variable for the SpaceX stock outlook.
So you’ve got a shaky Starship program and a nervous stock price, both walking straight into the moment when a large wave of insider shares becomes eligible to hit the market. That’s not a coincidence you can ignore.
And Now, The Merger Talk Everyone Keeps Bringing Up
As if that weren’t enough, there’s a persistent, unresolved storyline sitting on top of all of it: will SpaceX and Tesla eventually merge? Bloomberg has described the chatter as having shifted from “if” to “when” among longtime investors in both companies. Wedbush’s Dan Ives has floated odds around 80% for some kind of combination happening over roughly the next year. But actual prediction markets are pricing something far more cautious, think around 11% by September 2026, climbing to roughly 24% by year end, and about 44% before March 2027.
That’s a meaningful gap between the loudest bull case and where real money is actually betting, and it’s exactly the kind of disagreement that makes for great financial theater. And no, even if a deal happened tomorrow, we’re not talking about a $4 trillion company. SpaceX’s recent equity value has been running around $1.7 to $1.8 trillion, and Tesla’s market cap is closer to $1.38 trillion. Add those together and you land somewhere in the “multi trillion dollar,” or roughly $3 trillion plus, neighborhood, still enormous, just not quite the number getting thrown around online. That valuation debate has become another major input into the SpaceX stock outlook.
The business logic behind the speculation isn’t crazy, though. Tesla has already sold SpaceX hundreds of millions of dollars in Megapack batteries and Cybertrucks, and the two companies are increasingly tied together through AI ambitions, including SpaceX’s own compute and chip manufacturing plans.
Speaking of which, on a recent investor call, SpaceX CFO Bret Johnsen laid out just how deep the Tesla connection already runs. He described a new chip manufacturing venture, nicknamed Terafab, built specifically as a partnership between SpaceX, Tesla, and Intel, designed to guarantee both companies a steady supply of the semiconductors their AI ambitions depend on. He also detailed SpaceX’s plans for “orbital compute,” literally putting AI data center racks into space, powered by solar cells that get roughly five times more sunlight than they would on Earth and kept cool through liquid cooling loops paired with radiative panels, since space doesn’t allow the kind of convective cooling data centers rely on here at home. It’s an audacious idea, but one Johnsen says only becomes economical once Starship achieves rapid, airplane like reusability, which is exactly the capability this week’s aborted launch was supposed to help prove out.
So What Actually Happens Next?
Here’s the sequence to watch: SpaceX tries Starship again, probably within days. Early August brings Q2 earnings and, right behind it, the first big wave of insider shares becoming eligible for sale. And hovering over the whole thing is a merger question that Wall Street can’t stop debating but also can’t seem to agree on.
Any one of these going sideways could rattle the stock further. All of them landing well could be the moment SpaceX proves its multi trillion dollar valuation is more than just IPO hype. Either way, the next month is shaping up to be one of the most consequential stretches in SpaceX’s history as a public company, and yours, if you’re holding the stock.
Disclaimer: We do not hold any positions in the above stock(s). Read our full disclaimer here.
