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Intel Stock Went Nuclear—But Is The AI Rally Already Cracking?

Intel Corporation has become one of the most dramatic comeback stories in the semiconductor market, with its stock rising more than fivefold over the past 12 months and more than tripling this year before pulling back for three straight sessions. The rally has been fueled by a powerful idea: Intel is no longer just a legacy chipmaker trying to defend its PC and server franchise, but a potential AI infrastructure winner with CPUs, advanced packaging, foundry capacity, and manufacturing scale. Its latest earnings call helped reinforce that narrative, with management pointing to strong demand, better supply execution, and server CPU momentum. But the market’s new question is whether the stock has moved faster than the fundamentals. UBS estimates show Intel losing server CPU share to AMD and Arm, while valuation multiples now imply a much higher bar for execution.