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The LENS Index added its ninth and tenth positions this week. Neither is a semiconductor. Neither tracks the Nasdaq. And both were identified weeks before today through our systematic screener process.
One name came from a Q2 earnings report that confirmed exactly what our thesis predicted. The other has been on our Watch List since July, sitting in the screener results every single week, waiting for this article to serve as the entry gate.
Here is where the portfolio stands before we get to the names.
| Metric | Value | Notes | Last Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active Positions | 10 / 30 | CME + ARES entered today Jul22 | 22-Jul-26 |
| Cash Deployed | 44% | 56% reserve maintained | 22-Jul-26 |
| Cash Reserve | 56% | Minimum 15% maintained | 22-Jul-26 |
| Performance Since Launch | +3.1% | S&P: +0.9% | Alpha: +2.2% | 22-Jul-26 |
| Alpha Generated | +2.2% | All prices user-confirmed from Robinhood | 22-Jul-26 |
| Portfolio Beta | 0.65 | vs S&P 500 | 39 obs | 22-Jul-26 |
| Max Drawdown | -3.7% | Jun18 peak → Jul16 trough 101.47 | 22-Jul-26 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.09 | Annualized, 39 obs, rf=3.5% | 22-Jul-26 |
| Inception | May 22, 2026 | DELL pre-mortem. Warsh sworn in same day. | Fixed |
| Benchmark | S&P 500 Total Return | Outperform on risk-adjusted basis | Fixed |
| Strategy | Narrative Disruption | Long-only, large-cap, max 30 positions | Fixed |
| Direction | Long Only | Subscribe to access all positions | Fixed |
Both positions are fully paywalled below. We cover the rationale behind each one, the entry parameters, and what we are watching for next.
Position 1: The Exchange Nobody Thought Would Survive Crypto
CME Group Inc (NASDAQ:CME) entered the LENS Index today at $249.24 as a CORE 4% position. The thesis has been live on our Watch List since June 29.
The narrative holding the stock down was this: Kalshi, the prediction market platform, received regulatory approval to offer crypto perpetual futures and interest rate derivatives. The conventional wisdom was that retail-accessible contracts would bleed volume away from CME’s institutional base and permanently compress the multiple.
We disagreed from the start. And Q2 2026 just proved it.
CME’s average daily volume in Q2 came in at record levels, beating consensus estimates by a meaningful margin. Treasury futures, Eurodollar contracts, and interest rate swaps did not lose a single institutional client to Kalshi. The reason is structural. A pension fund managing duration risk against a liability book does not need a regulated contract. It needs a cleared, margined, exchange-traded product with counterparty guarantee and CFTC oversight. Kalshi does not offer that. It never will. These are not the same customer.
The NFP miss in early July, the rate volatility that followed, and the ongoing uncertainty around the Warsh Fed path all mean one thing for CME: more hedging activity, not less. Every week of elevated rate uncertainty is a week of elevated CME volume.
The original entry trigger was a close below $230. Q2 earnings pushed the stock through $230 and above $249 in the same session. We entered above our trigger because the earnings report itself was the confirmation event. Entering at $249.24 rather than $221 means slightly less of the narrative gap remains to close. The thesis is intact. The position is sized accordingly.
| Ticker | Company | Sector | Date Added | Why Watching | Trigger To Add |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSLR | First Solar Inc | Technology (Solar) | 14-Jul-26 | P/E 14.28. Only major US-based solar manufacturer at scale. IRA domestic content + Chinese panel tariffs = direct competitive advantage. Market conflates hostile solar policy with FSLR specifically — it benefits from it. Backlog through 2030 on take-or-pay contracts. Article in progress. | Article published. Entry near current ~$221. SPEC 2-3%. |
| EXPE | Expedia Group Inc | Consumer Cyclical | 14-Jul-26 | Estimate Revision screener. P/E 23.40. Positive EPS + revenue surprises. Narrative: AI travel summaries will destroy OTAs. Counter: Corporate travel contracts, duty-of-care, loyalty platforms immune. Rate hike headwind remains — article + sector check required. | Article confirming OTA vs AI narrative gap. SPEC 1-2%. |
| ANET | Arista Networks | Technology | 04-Jun-26 | 80%+ share in AI Ethernet networking. Hyperscalers shifting from InfiniBand to Ethernet. Consistent screener presence. Near $160 trigger. | Sustained close below $160. SPEC 1-2%. |
| NVDA | NVIDIA Corp | Technology | 23-Jun-26 | CUDA moat structural. Blackwell demand intact. ASIC competition overstated. MU +12.2% Jul21 validates strong AI demand — NVDA thesis intact. Chip recovery may have moved stock above trigger range. | Close at or below $183 → SPEC 1-2%. Verify current price. |
| LITE | Lumentum Holdings | Technology | 09-Jun-26 | Optical AI networking. Passes Hidden AI Beneficiary screener consistently. Chip rebound may have moved away from $737 trigger. Verify current price. | Close at or below $737 (20% from $921.56) → SPEC 1-2%. |
| SNOW | Snowflake | Technology | 29-May-26 | NRR 126%. AI workloads drive data cloud demand. Near trigger range. | 15-20% pullback → $190-205 entry. SPEC 1-2%. |
| HSY | Hershey Company | Consumer Defensive | 29-Jun-26 | Blind Spot Recovery screener. Dual overstated narratives: cocoa cost + GLP-1 fear. EPS >10%, Sales >5%, div >2%. Better entry at $165-170. | Pullback to $165-170. Target $210-220. |
Entry: $249.24 | 12M Target: $300 | Hard Stop: $200 | Tier: CORE 4%
Thesis break: sustained Q3 or Q4 ADV decline that shows institutional hedgers actually moved volume away from CME. That has not happened. One quarter of record results says the opposite is true.
Position 2: The Lender To Every AI Data Center Being Built
Ares Management Corp (NYSE:ARES) entered the LENS Index today at $119.57 as a SPEC 3% position.
This name has appeared in two of our four screeners simultaneously. A double hit that happens rarely in our process. It passed both the Blind Spot Recovery screener and the Narrative Correction screener in the same session on July 13. Every week since, it has remained in both.
Here is the thesis. Every data center that gets built requires debt financing. Not equity. Debt. The capital structures behind the hyperscaler buildout: the sale-leaseback deals, the construction loans, the infrastructure credit facilities. All of these are funded through private credit markets. Ares Management is the world’s largest alternative asset manager with a specific focus on private credit, with over $335 billion in AUM and a direct credit book that is growing at double-digit rates.
The market prices Ares as a generic alternative asset manager exposed to credit cycle risk. The counter-narrative is that AI infrastructure is creating a demand for private credit that is structurally distinct from the credit cycle. Hyperscaler capex is not discretionary spend responding to interest rates. It is a strategic arms race. Amazon, Microsoft, and Google have all guided for sustained multi-year capex expansion regardless of rate environment. That capex needs financing. Ares is one of the few institutions with the scale, the deal flow relationships, and the credit underwriting expertise to absorb large infrastructure transactions at the pace the market now requires.
The stock moved from approximately $109 when we first identified it to $119.57 at today’s entry, a 10% appreciation before we even got in. That is the cost of a careful process. We still enter because the gap between current pricing and intrinsic value remains wide, and the catalyst to close it is secular rather than episodic.
| # | Ticker | Company | Tier | Status | Alloc % | Entry Date | Entry $ | Current $ | Return % | 12M Target | Hard Stop $ | Thesis Break Condition | Next Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DELL | Dell Technologies | CORE | HOLD | 8% | 22-May-26 | $291.00 | $441.80 | +51.8% | $540.00 | $218 | Q3 AI server rev below $14B OR FY2027 guide cut | Q2 FY2027 earnings (Sep 3, 2026) |
| 2 | AVGO | Broadcom Inc. | CORE | BUY | 7% | 05-Jun-26 | $385.73 | $396.81 | +2.9% | $575.00 | $289 | Q3 AI bookings below $20B OR hyperscaler reduces XPU commitment | Q3 FY2026 earnings (Sep 2026) |
| 3 | GEV | GE Vernova Inc. | CORE | BUY | 4% | 14-Jul-26 | $1,042.60 | $985.03 | -5.5% | $1,400.00 | $730 | Multi-quarter decline in data center/AI power orders OR hyperscaler capex reversal | Post-Q2 selloff. Q2 results confirmed. Hard stop $730. |
| 4 | CME | CME Group | CORE | BUY | 4% | 22-Jul-26 | $249.24 | $249.24 | NEW | $300.00 | $200 | Sustained ADV decline OR Kalshi displaces institutional rate-hedging (thesis break) | Q3 2026 earnings | Thesis confirmed: record Q2 ADV. Volume trajectory key. |
| 5 | MU | Micron Technology | BASE | BUY | 5% | 05-Jun-26 | $863.57 | $959.48 | +11.1% | $1,500.00 | $605 | HBM pricing collapse OR Samsung closes HBM quality gap | +11.1% from entry. Target $1,500. |
| 6 | NOW | ServiceNow Inc. | BASE | BUY | 4% | 05-Jun-26 | $113.39 | $95.46 | -15.8% | $170.00 | $79 | Q2 net new ARR fails to accelerate | Q2 2026 earnings Jul29 (7 days) — THESIS RESOLUTION EVENT. Stop $79 watch. |
| 7 | GOOGL | Alphabet Inc. | BASE | BUY | 4% | 05-Jun-26 | $368.00 | $342.09 | -7.0% | $470.00 | $258 | Cloud backlog conversion below 40% | Post-Q2 earnings. -7.0% from entry. Next: Q3 expectations. |
| 8 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | SPEC | BUY | 3% | 05-Jun-26 | $238.49 | $210.99 | -11.5% | $400.00 | $155 | Scale-up optics below $200M OR FY2028 guide cut | Recovering. -11.5% from entry. Hard stop $155. |
| 9 | ARES | Ares Management | SPEC | BUY | 3% | 22-Jul-26 | $119.57 | $119.57 | NEW | $160.00 | $92 | AUM growth reversal OR private credit market dislocation | Article to publish within 48hrs. Private credit + AI infra thesis. |
| 10 | PODD | Insulet Corp | SPEC | BUY | 2% | 29-Jun-26 | $157.74 | $158.93 | +0.8% | $230.00 | $93 | Type 1 patient churn from GLP-1 (biologically implausible) OR revenue growth below 10% | Q3 2026 earnings | +0.8% above entry |
| — | CASH | Undeployed Capital | — | — | 56% | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Entry: $119.57 | 12M Target: $160 | Hard Stop: $92 | Tier: SPEC 3%
Thesis break: sustained AUM decline from redemptions or a multi-quarter freeze in private credit deal flow that shows infrastructure financing moving to public markets. Neither is happening. Both screeners keep catching this name for a reason.
The LENS Index now holds ten positions, 44% of capital deployed, 56% in reserve. The next catalyst event in the portfolio is ServiceNow’s Q2 earnings on July 29, where net new ARR acceleration is the thesis confirmation we are watching for.
