In a time of rapidly shifting global dynamics, NVIDIA finds itself in a delicate position amid escalating tensions between the United States, Taiwan, and China. With Donald Trump’s return to office as the 47th President, his administration’s potential tariffs on Taiwanese-made chips may spell significant implications for NVIDIA, one of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s (TSMC) key clients. Trump’s administration has already criticized the U.S. CHIPS Act, calling out Taiwan for allegedly “stealing” America’s chip industry. Given NVIDIA’s heavy reliance on TSMC’s advanced chips, these developments are particularly concerning. Moreover, Beijing has been vocal about its intent to reduce dependency on foreign semiconductor technology, including NVIDIA’s products, due to growing export restrictions. Recent earnings reports from NVIDIA indicated strong performance, particularly in data centers and AI solutions, yet the company’s share of revenue from China has already seen a notable drop. As trade tensions intensify, this situation could worsen, especially with potential tariffs and increased competition from China’s local chip market. Here’s an analysis of the four key factors that could impact NVIDIA’s China business in light of these geopolitical shifts.